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UKPollingReport
Opinion polling and political analysis
Latest YouGov Welsh poll
I normally give myself a day off on Fridays, since there isn’t normally much in the way of polling, but I’ve just noticed a YouGov Welsh poll from last night. Topline voting intention figures for Westminster and the Welsh assembly … Continue reading →
Fri, 03 Feb 2012 22:52:56 +0000
Anthony Wells
Wales
YouGov
YouGov/Sun – CON 39, LAB 41, LDEM 8
Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%. The two main parties remain extremely close, but we’re seeing more marginal Labour leads than marginal Tory ones (in the last fortnight’s YouGov polls … Continue reading →
Thu, 02 Feb 2012 22:39:26 +0000
Anthony Wells
MORI
Scotland
Voting Intention
YouGov
ComRes and YouGov both show 1 point Labour leads
Two new polls tonight, and both show a one point Labour lead. ComRes’s monthly telephone poll for the Independent has topline figures of CON 37%(-1), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 14%(+2). Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures … Continue reading →
Tue, 31 Jan 2012 22:06:50 +0000
Anthony Wells
Communicate
Voting Intention
YouGov
The problem with “Do you agree or disagree with this statement” questions
I’m regularly sniffy about questions asked in the format of “do you agree or disagree with this statement”, a construction much beloved of the Independent. Here is why, using the December ComRes phone poll as an example. ComRes found 74% … Continue reading →
Tue, 31 Jan 2012 20:35:28 +0000
Anthony Wells
Methodology
Ipsos MORI poll on Scottish Independence
There was a new Ipsos MORI Scotland poll out this morning, using the wording that Alex Salmond has suggested for the Scottish referendum. “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?” Topline results were 37% Yes, 50% No, … Continue reading →
Tue, 31 Jan 2012 13:51:19 +0000
Anthony Wells
MORI
Scotland
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politicalbetting.com
The web's premier resource for political betting.
Into the weekend with PB NightHawks
Have a good evebning This is our regular open thread to take PBers through the night. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH
Fri, 03 Feb 2012 21:59:57 +0000
Mike Smithson
Next cabinet exit – a new market goes up
Cabinet Minister Ladbrokes odds Party Cheryl Gillan 6/4 CON Andrew Lansley 5/1 CON Vince Cable 6/1 LD Ken Clarke 8/1 CON William Hague 10/1 CON Baroness [...]
Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:49:37 +0000
Mike Smithson
Marf on the morning’s news
Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:00:00 +0000
Mike Smithson
Only one story this morning…
Joey Jones at LibDem retreat in Eastbourne confirms that Chris Huhne will be charge. Huhne expected to resign from Cabinet — adamboulton (@adamboultonSKY) February 3, 2012 Huhne speeding D-Day. I still love the fact that Aussie slang for a fast driver is…. ‘a hoon’. f24.my/xItDqA — Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) February 3, 2012 Huhne and his [...]
Fri, 03 Feb 2012 09:13:11 +0000
Mike Smithson
After an eventful day welcome to the PB NightHawks cafe
My selection of this evening’s tweets:- Just 41 people contributed 25% of Romney’s campaign war chest…pwire.at/xSJbs1 — Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) February 2, 2012 #GOP: Romney 31% / Gingrich 25% / Santorum 17% / Paul 12% / Other 2% / Unsure 13% (Gallup nat’l tracking, Jan 28-Feb 1) j.mp/nEDXyw — PollingReport.com (@pollreport) February 2, 2012 Clegg [...]
Thu, 02 Feb 2012 21:53:26 +0000
Mike Smithson
Does this mean Huhne’s going to be charged or not charged?
Telegraph What can we read into this afternoon’s news? In a discussion over a drink at the weekend my lawyer friend who’s had a career as a prosecutor suggested that one of the major considerations for the CPS over the Huhne case would be whether it would be possible to hold a fair trial. This [...]
Thu, 02 Feb 2012 16:10:15 +0000
Mike Smithson
The referendum: How changing the question affects response
Ashcroft poll on Scottish Referendum For independence Against independence “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?” 41 59 “Do you agree or disagree [...]
Thu, 02 Feb 2012 08:47:36 +0000
Mike Smithson
Wednesday night in the PB Nighthawks Cafe
… My selection of this evening’s tweets:- BBC must’ve run this story as a favour to Tories – 7-child family needing >£26k benefits spends £100/wk on fags & booze bbc.co.uk/news/uk-168121… — Greg Callus (@Morus1516) February 1, 2012 Forfeiture committee said it couldn’t strip Fred of his ‘K’ in 2009 bit.ly/zes6ZR — Gary Gibbon’s Blog (@GaryGibbonBlog) [...]
Wed, 01 Feb 2012 21:35:31 +0000
Mike Smithson
Is EdM now off the “danger list”?
Are his commons performances restoring confidence? Less than a fortnight ago Ed Miliband’s future as LAB leader seemed very much in doubt. William Hills took some big bets and concluded that the incumbent was a gonner. The price against Ed not surviving until the general election moved in to 8/11 and you could have got [...]
Wed, 01 Feb 2012 13:30:38 +0000
Mike Smithson
Can Gingrich really go on for 46 more states?
After his Florida thumping Newt says he staying As expected Mitt Romney won Florida overnight with a fourteen point victory. It was a huge result for the ex-governor of Massachusetts and one, surely, that makes it even more likely that he’ll be the nominee. But Newt was defiant an hour or so ago. The big [...]
Wed, 01 Feb 2012 05:10:43 +0000
Mike Smithson
A new phone poll & Florida for PB NightHawks
LDs up 3 while LAB regain the lead There’s a new ComRes telephone poll out for the Independent and the figures, with changes on the last phone poll from the firm are in the chart above. Not much change except the Lib Dem share moving up 3 to 14%. The non-VI questions all follow ComRes’s [...]
Tue, 31 Jan 2012 21:59:31 +0000
Mike Smithson
Florida: Remember how it looked just 9 days ago?
… How big will Mitt win by tonight? It is extraordinary that only nine days ago Newt had a big lead in Florida and looked all set to take a second successive state. As we all know it hasn’t actually happened like that and if some polls are right Mitt will win with a double [...]
Tue, 31 Jan 2012 14:56:34 +0000
Mike Smithson
Ipsos-MORI puts support for Scottish independence at 39pc
NO voters say they are less likely to change their mind A new telephone poll of Scottish voters by Ipsos-MORI for the Times puts support for independence at 39% – which is just one point up on the firm’s last poll in December. The question that was put was the one proposed last week by [...]
Tue, 31 Jan 2012 05:34:54 +0000
Mike Smithson
The PB NightHawks Cafe is open
… Welcome and join tonight’s big political conversation Here are a couple of tweets from with the past half hour. Speculation in Brussels that Cam is delayed because he is having to clear his lines with Clegg — Tim Shipman (Mail) (@ShippersUnbound) January 30, 2012 Santorum and Gingrich both beat Romney 1 on 1 in [...]
Mon, 30 Jan 2012 21:35:34 +0000
Mike Smithson
Can Guido secure 73,717 signatures by Saturday?
Is he in danger of losing losing the E-petition war? Back in the summer Guido launched a campaign to get capital punishment restored for certain cases of serious murder and he set up a petition on the Number 10 e-petitions site. The aim was to reach the threshold of 100,000 within six months so it [...]
Mon, 30 Jan 2012 16:50:17 +0000
Mike Smithson
How many 16 year olds would bother to vote?
Should the franchise be extended? With suggestions from the SNP that the franchise should be extended to 16 year olds in the referendum there was a good article over the weekend by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University. He sifts through what polling there is and concludes “…we cannot presume that the opinions of younger [...]
Mon, 30 Jan 2012 07:40:57 +0000
Mike Smithson
It looks as though it’s all over for Newt in Florida
Some ugly polls for Gingrich this morning. Our forecast has Romney +13 in Florida, 95% chance of winning. nyti.ms/ywKYEp — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) January 29, 2012 Last Sunday he was 8% ahead With Florida going into its final day of campaigning tomorrow it looks pretty certain that Mitt Romney will chalk up his second victory [...]
Sun, 29 Jan 2012 18:15:23 +0000
Mike Smithson
Clegg gets best leader ratings in nearly a year
And Miliband moves up from last week’s record low This week’s leader ratings from YouGov are just out and all three main party leaders see improvements on a week ago. Camerons “Well/Badly” figures are 46/47 making a net minus 1. Last week it was minus 3. Ed Miliband is on 20/68 which is a net [...]
Sun, 29 Jan 2012 08:07:20 +0000
Mike Smithson
PB NightHawks on the day on the day of RBS bonuses
… The big news today, of course, has been that the chairman of RBS, Sir Philip Hampton has given up a £1.4m shares bonus due next month. This will probably end the row which has caused problems for both government and opposition. Meanwhile it costs nothing to join tonight’s conversation in the PB NightHawks cafe. [...]
Sat, 28 Jan 2012 22:02:07 +0000
Mike Smithson
The Florida polling continues to look good for Mitt
Mitt up by around 10 points on the first round of calls for our Florida poll…this one may end up being a snooze — PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) January 28, 2012 Santorum has the best favorability numbers out of all the candidates in Florida but still not picking up much support — PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) January 28, 2012 [...]
Sat, 28 Jan 2012 17:32:02 +0000
Mike Smithson
What odds a Tory landslide in 2015?
Could Dave seal the first Tory working majority since 1987? One market sadly missing at the moment that on which punters can predict how many seats a party will win at the next election. Before 2010, odds could be had both on the exchanges and with bookies, and punters could also buy and sell seats [...]
Sat, 28 Jan 2012 08:16:26 +0000
Mike Smithson
Friday night and time for the PB NightHawks to gather
… This is, of course, PB’s regular overnight open thread where all things political are discussed. Welcome to the cafe – have a good evening. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH
Fri, 27 Jan 2012 21:47:54 +0000
Mike Smithson
Is Salmond’s referendum question biased & unfair?
Does the boss of ICM have a point? Alex Salmond announced on Wednesday that his “straightforward” question for the Scottish referendum was: “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? This has now been scrutinized by academic and polling experts who are saying that it is leading and suggest that it is designed [...]
Fri, 27 Jan 2012 14:02:03 +0000
Mike Smithson
Could Santorum now edge Newt out as the ABM choice?
Was the latest debate Gingrich’s last stand? These were the reactions of Nate Silver, the prominent US election and polling analyst, to the final TV debate in Florida ahead of next Tuesday’s primary. Grades (strategy/execution): Romney (A/A); Santorum (A-/A); Paul (B-/C); Gingrich (D-/B) — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) January 27, 2012 Could envision an outcome in [...]
Fri, 27 Jan 2012 05:34:14 +0000
Mike Smithson
A big night for PB NightHawks
Thursdays are generally more interesting than usual. We have Question Time on BBC1, the council by-elections as well as, tonight, the final TV debate between the GOP candidates in Florida. We also have the final YouGov daily poll of the week. Share your thoughts here in the PB NightHawks Cafe. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH
Thu, 26 Jan 2012 21:48:45 +0000
Mike Smithson
The Romney price gets tighter in the GOP race
Betfair Politics
Thu, 26 Jan 2012 16:25:30 +0000
Mike Smithson
Can Newt come back from the dead a THIRD time?
From an 8% Florida lead to an 8% deficit in just three days The big news in the fight for next Tuesday’s GOP primary in Florida is that there’s been a huge turnaround in the polls. The most startling movement has come with Insider Advantage which on Sunday evening, in the aftermath of Newt’s stunning [...]
Thu, 26 Jan 2012 05:22:42 +0000
Mike Smithson
Welome PB NightHawks as the Scottish referendum gets closer
Twitpic What do we think of this spoof? I think its fun and certainly gets over a lot of the emotional case on one side. Quite a few betting markets are being established but given the time-scale there’s nothing that I can recommend. I like to bet on something and see an outcome in weeks [...]
Wed, 25 Jan 2012 21:22:32 +0000
Mike Smithson
A more confident PMQ performance by Ed Miliband
Is he getting his mojo back? After the drubbing he’s been getting in the media and appalling personal poll figures Ed Miliband finally came back with a decent PMQ performance. He’s cut the jokes and is working on his speaking style. At the end of one or two of his questions he lowered his voice [...]
Wed, 25 Jan 2012 12:49:16 +0000
Mike Smithson
Take the 10-1 Ladbrokes brokered convention bet
The chances are a lot tighter than that Ladbrokes put up a market overnight on there being a brokered convention to choose the GOP 2012 nominee for the White House. The opening price was a mouth-watering 20/1 It then soon moved to 16/1 and by the time I became aware of it the price was [...]
Wed, 25 Jan 2012 04:31:26 +0000
Mike Smithson
Dear Mr. Betfair in the PB NightHawks Cafe
The row over Iowa moves up another notch For those like me who are battling with Betfair over the Iowa caucus outome I’ve now dug up what could be helpful evidence. Betfair is claiming that the statement on election night by Matt Strawn, the Chairman of the Iowa Republican party, was the official announcement and [...]
Tue, 24 Jan 2012 21:52:46 +0000
Mike Smithson
More leader ratings gloom for EdM
Now Ipsos-MORI has him below Nick Clegg The January Reuters/MORI poll is just out and there’s more bad news for the Labour in the leader ratings. The net figures are featured in the chart above. On voting intention, however, CON has lost its lead. These are the figures with changes on December – CON 38% [...]
Tue, 24 Jan 2012 17:59:37 +0000
Mike Smithson
Boris still the favourite in spite of the polls
Betfair Politics Inevitably there’s been movement on the London mayoral betting following the YouGov and ComRes polls whih both had Ken narrowly ahead. But based on Betfair prices Boris is a 60% favourite with Ken at 40%. There’s clearly a long way to go. The best bookmaker price you can get with Boris is 8/13 [...]
Tue, 24 Jan 2012 14:05:16 +0000
Mike Smithson
Why it will be either Newt or a brokered convention?
Betfair Politics A guest slot by Tim Trevan (TimT) Pundits both sides of the Atlantic gave Romney the GOP nomination two weeks ago. PB’s own survey had close to 90% saying it was his, with most saying he would win both Iowa and New Hampshire in addition. At the time, I railed against such implied [...]
Tue, 24 Jan 2012 04:33:43 +0000
Mike Smithson
PB NightHawks after a huge day of polling
ICM has CON 5% ahead while Populus gives LAB a 1% lead It’s been a huge day of polling on both sides of the Atlantic and I’m only now catching up with the first UK telephone polls of 2012. ICM had with changes on December – CON 40%(+3): LAB 35%(-1): LD 16%(+1) . So a [...]
Mon, 23 Jan 2012 22:01:03 +0000
Mike Smithson
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Forecast UK
Predicting the Next UK General Election
Latest Forecast – 11th January 2011
This is our first forecast of the new year and reflects opinion polls in the UK over the past month.
Tue, 11 Jan 2011 14:49:11 +0000
Forecast UK
Forecast
General
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Election Summary
Gb
General Election
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Labour Majority
Lib Dem
Lib Dems
Liberal Democrat
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Mps
New Labour
New Year
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Scotland
Snp
Latest Forecast – 2nd December 2010
This is our second forecast of the new parliament and reflects opinion polls in the UK over the past month.
Thu, 02 Dec 2010 16:01:26 +0000
Forecast UK
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General
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General Election
Greens
Labour Majority
Labour Vote
Lib Dem
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New Labour
Nick Clegg
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Scotland
Sheffield
Snp
Swing
Latest Forecast – 3rd September 2010
This is our first forecast of the new parliament and reflects opinion polls in the UK over the past month.
Fri, 03 Sep 2010 13:54:29 +0000
Forecast UK
Forecast
General
3rd September
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General Election
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Labour Vote
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How did we do?
Here’s a quick summary as to how the major polling organisations did in predicting the share of the vote, compared with Forecast UK.
Fri, 07 May 2010 18:34:03 +0000
Forecast UK
Analysis
General
Angus Reid
Bounce
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Yougov
Final Forecast – 6th May 2010
This is our final forecast for the General Election.
Thu, 06 May 2010 06:23:05 +0000
Forecast UK
General
Absolute Majority
Conservatives
East London
General Election
George Galloway
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Hung
John Bercow
Labour
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Richard Taylor
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Westminster
Latest Forecast – 3rd May 2010
This is our penultimate forecast before the General Election proper. We will be providing a full forecast once the final opinion polls have been released, published either on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning.
Mon, 03 May 2010 10:38:11 +0000
Forecast UK
Forecast
General
Scotland
Conservatives
David Cameron
Decline
Few Days
Final Polls
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Fortnight
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House Of Commons
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Liberal Democrat
Liberal Democrats
Margin Of Error
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Percentage Changes
Percentage Vote
Poll Results
Polling Day
Thursday Morning
Wednesday Evening
Latest Forecast – 28th April 2010
Since our last forecast the position in the polls has stabilised slightly. If an election was held tomorrow, we believe that the Liberal Democrats would still be in second position, but not with as large a lead over Labour as some recent opinion polls have indicated.
Wed, 28 Apr 2010 10:57:25 +0000
Forecast UK
Forecast
General
Conservatives
Downgrades
East London
Few Days
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George Galloway
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Liberal Democrat
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Westminster
Latest Forecast – 20th April 2010
A dramatic week in the polls has prompted us to release an interim forecast to reflect the current parties’ standings.
Tue, 20 Apr 2010 11:33:53 +0000
Forecast UK
Forecast
General
20th April
Conservatives
Decline
East London
Fluctuations
George Galloway
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Place Tomorrow
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Richard Taylor
Snp
Westminster
1983 General Election Coverage – BBC
In 1983 Labour presented the most radical socialist manifesto for decades. Michael Foot’s party were annihilated at the ballot boxes and Margaret Thatcher achieved a landslide victory. Watch all the excitement of the TV [...]
Sat, 17 Apr 2010 09:00:49 +0000
Forecast UK
General
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Margaret Thatcher
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Latest Forecast – 16th April 2010
Forecast UK Tracker
Fri, 16 Apr 2010 14:35:10 +0000
Forecast UK
Forecast
General
16th April
Conservatives
Democrats
East London
Election Campaign
General Election
George Galloway
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Presen
Scotland
Seven Days
Snp
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Uk Tracker
Westminster
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